Diesel: IEA expects stocks to remain under pressure into 2027
The 14 October report distinguishes refinery recovery from rebuilding reserves. Lasting relief remains conditional.
The global diesel market would remain tight well into 2027, according to the oil report published on 14 October by the International Energy Agency. The expected recovery in refining would not quickly rebuild stocks lost during 2026.
The IEA considers replenishment of these reserves, beyond normal seasonal fluctuations, unlikely before the second half of 2027. Yet it forecasts a gasoil and diesel market surplus from the first quarter. Producing more than current consumption therefore does not immediately erase the accumulated deficit.
Global diesel exports were about 700,000 barrels per day below their September 2025 level, according to the preliminary data cited. Losses from the Middle East and Russia were only partly offset by other suppliers.
These projections depend on a recovery in refined product supplies from the Middle East. They flag risks for transport and supply costs without determining the next pump price in Morocco. The report describes a fragile global balance, not a guaranteed local price.