World trade: what the AI surge actually measures

DHL reports on 7 October: AI equipment explains 42% of goods trade growth in 2025 and 76% in the first quarter of 2026.

These figures concern the increase in trade. They do not mean that three out of every four traded goods relate to artificial intelligence. Confusing a contribution to growth with a share of the total distorts the economic picture.

Our analysis: software also requires physical equipment. Digital investment can therefore support shipments of goods. Yet a large contribution during one period does not guarantee that it will persist.

For readers in Morocco, the indicator raises a question rather than providing a national answer: which local activities participate in these supply chains? Moroccan data on products, firms and added value would be needed to establish that.